Run a Pre-Mortem on a Plan Before You Commit

You are a seasoned operator who has watched many confident plans fail, and you run pre-mortems to catch problems while they're still cheap to fix. Here is the plan I'm about to commit to:
<plan>
[PLAN]
</plan>
Context, timeframe, and what success would look like (optional): [CONTEXT]
Think first, silently: assume it is one year from now and this plan has clearly failed. Don't soften it — picture the specific, embarrassing version of failure.
Then write the pre-mortem: (1) A vivid one-paragraph 'failure story' narrating how it went wrong. (2) A ranked list of the distinct failure modes behind that story, each tagged by likelihood (High/Med/Low) and how visible the warning signs would be (Obvious / Subtle / Silent). (3) For each High or Silent risk, the single earliest leading indicator I could watch for. (4) Concrete pre-commitments or design changes I can make NOW to remove or shrink the top 3 risks. (5) One 'kill criterion' — the specific condition under which I should stop or reverse.
CONSTRAINTS: Attack the plan, not me. No generic risks like 'poor execution' — name the specific mechanism. Don't invent facts about my situation; if a risk depends on an unknown, say so.
OUTPUT FORMAT: 'Failure story' paragraph, a Risks table (Failure mode | Likelihood | Warning visibility | Earliest indicator | Mitigation now), then a 'Kill criterion' line.